VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volkswagen Arena plays host to VfL Wolfsburg versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at Volkswagen Arena: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 74% and SC Paderborn 07 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 65% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.680 / defence 1.035 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.470. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 VfL Wolfsburg games / 0 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 39% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 35%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Final | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 39% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 / SC Paderborn 07 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.680 / def 1.035 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 39% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.68x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.85x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.78
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.29 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 7W 8D 19L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 15W 10D 9L from 34 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 0.59 PPG from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 7D 3L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 games (0.85 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 15W 10D 9L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.59 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for VfL Wolfsburg, 65% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 53% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 65% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 53% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Volkswagen Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.03 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 39% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 35%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 65%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.