1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.50 for FSV Mainz 05 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2026, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 — a FSV Mainz 05 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus FSV Mainz 05 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 64% | FSV Mainz 05 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while FSV Mainz 05 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.006 / defence 1.255 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.980 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FSV Mainz 05's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 67 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 67.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 44%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.02 | Draw 4.46 | FSV Mainz 05 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 / FSV Mainz 05 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.006 / def 1.255 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.980 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.84
FSV Mainz 05 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 33% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.01x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.98x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 67 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
33%
3.02
22%
4.46
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.40
1.84
FSV Mainz 05 xG
3.02
33%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
5%
18.94
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.84 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 13W 14D 40L from 67 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 24L across 67 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FSV Mainz 05 by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 6W 8D 19L from their last 33 home games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 13W 7D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.45 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 14D 40L in their last 67 games (0.79 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FSV Mainz 05's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.79 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FSV Mainz 05 have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 48%, FSV Mainz 05 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 70% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 46% of games; FSV Mainz 05 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 88% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.84 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 44%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 64%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FSV Mainz 05 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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