1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Bayer Leverkusen, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 0–6 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus Bayer Leverkusen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.829 / defence 1.520 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.112 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.348. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.520 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 60 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 60.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.09 | Draw 4.98 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.66. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.25 / 2.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.829 / def 1.520 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.112 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.83) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.11x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.28.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 60 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
20%
5.09
20%
4.98
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.53
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.09
20%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
10%
9.76
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
2%
49.65
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.28 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 11D 39L from 60 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 32W 18D 10L across 60 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 4W 7D 19L from their last 30 home games — 0.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 15W 11D 4L across their last 30 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 11D 39L in their last 60 games (0.68 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 18D 10L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.63 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 6-0 1. FC Heidenheim on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 60% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 90% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.52 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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