Bayern München 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bayern München at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Fußball Arena München to face Bayern München in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayern München's home record at Fußball Arena München: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bayern München are significantly better at Fußball Arena München than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bayern München, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–5 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 61% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 73% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.82 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.468 / defence 0.744 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.909 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.388. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 2.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Bayern München games / 64 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 75% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Frankfurt 9%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Eintracht Frankfurt 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayern München 40% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Fußball Arena München • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 75% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Frankfurt 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 58% | xG Bayern München 2.82 / Eintracht Frankfurt 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.468 / def 0.744 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.909 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
58%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Fußball Arena München.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayern München 2 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Fußball Arena München.
What competition is Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 75% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (5 meetings): Bayern München 2W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Bayern München (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bayern München's attack rating (1.47) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (0.91x) against Bayern München's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.34
9%
11.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.75
0.94
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
11.24
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
6%
16.71
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
1%
187.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.94 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Bayern München have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 42W 11D 11L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 24W 23D 17L from 64 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bayern München have posted 2.34 PPG from 32 outings (23W 6D 3L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 8W 11D 13L from 32 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayern München are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.62 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 42W 11D 11L in their last 64 games (2.14 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 23D 17L in their last 64 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Bayern München's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.34 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won 1-6 on 5 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayern München have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayern München
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 6, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Bayern München and 69% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bayern München's games and 69% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bayern München's matches and 69% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 at Fußball Arena München, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.82 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.94 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bayern München fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.47 / defence 0.74 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 75% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Frankfurt 9%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 73%, Eintracht Frankfurt 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.