SC Freiburg 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Freiburg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.20 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SC Freiburg: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 55% versus VfL Wolfsburg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 58% | VfL Wolfsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.65 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.975 / defence 1.264 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.813 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.388. Data: 64 SC Freiburg games / 64 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Freiburg 1.65 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.975 / def 1.264 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.813 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
VfL Wolfsburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 41% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 4W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.97) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.72
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.07
1.43
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.43 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 64 games, going 28W 15D 21L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (21W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.55 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Freiburg's home form reads 15W 10D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (10W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.44 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 15D 21L in their last 64 games (1.55 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 17D 26L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.72 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.12 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Freiburg) and 47% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 41% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 47% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat SC Freiburg 1-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.65 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 32%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.55 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.