FC Augsburg 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.80 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 60% versus SC Freiburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | SC Freiburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.744 / defence 0.807 | SC Freiburg attack 0.732 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.381. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 FC Augsburg games / 57 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 4.76. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Augsburg 1.40 / SC Freiburg 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.744 / def 0.807 | SC Freiburg attack 0.732 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.82
SC Freiburg xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 50% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 6W.
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.73x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.36
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.22
0.82
SC Freiburg xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.82 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 16D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.42 PPG from 57 outings (23W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.42 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (9W 4D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.39 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 12D 22L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.11 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 64%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Augsburg) and 61% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Augsburg's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.82 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against SC Freiburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.