SC Freiburg 0-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 7W 1D 2L at Europa-Park Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, SC Freiburg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour RB Leipzig, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for SC Freiburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 55% versus RB Leipzig 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | RB Leipzig 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.08 xG and RB Leipzig 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.299 / defence 0.830 | RB Leipzig attack 0.954 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.411. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 SC Freiburg games / 58 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
RB Leipzig lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Freiburg 2.08 / RB Leipzig 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.299 / def 0.830 | RB Leipzig attack 0.954 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
RB Leipzig xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 0 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 59% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (7 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.30) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.51
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.20
1.12
RB Leipzig xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
2%
42.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.12 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 23W 13D 22L from 58 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 13L across 58 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.41 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 13W 8D 7L from 28 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 12W 8D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig in 60%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.68 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 71%, RB Leipzig at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Freiburg and 64% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Freiburg's matches and 64% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Freiburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig finished level at 0-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.08 xG and RB Leipzig 1.12 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against RB Leipzig attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 19%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, RB Leipzig 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.