Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 0.80 (Holstein Kiel). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 0 for Holstein Kiel and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 40% versus Holstein Kiel 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 47% | Holstein Kiel 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.67 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.728 / defence 0.917 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.385. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Union Berlin games / 23 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Holstein Kiel 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Holstein Kiel 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Union Berlin 1.67 / Holstein Kiel 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.728 / def 0.917 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Holstein Kiel xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Union Berlin 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 43% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.75
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.04
1.36
Holstein Kiel xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.36 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 12D 30L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 24W 9D 24L from 57 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.74 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 24W 9D 24L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.39 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
0
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, Holstein Kiel 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 68% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 36%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 64% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Union Berlin 0-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.67 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.36 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.92 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.07 / defence 1.41, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 47%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.