Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 37%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayer Leverkusen, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.262 / defence 0.920 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.365. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 57 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 35%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.262 / def 0.920 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 37% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (7 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.26x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.61
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.91
1.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.44 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 23W 20D 14L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 42W 14D 1L from 57 games, 2.46 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (14W 11D 3L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 20W 8D 0L from 28 away games — 2.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.46 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 61%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 20D 14L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 42W 14D 1L in their last 57 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.89 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
Draws
8
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 71%, Bayer Leverkusen at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 61% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 35%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.