FC St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC St. Pauli welcome Borussia Dortmund to Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC St. Pauli stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC St. Pauli at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC St. Pauli) versus 1.10 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Borussia Dortmund 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended FC St. Pauli 1–2 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 47% versus Borussia Dortmund 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 46% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.598 / defence 0.919 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.881 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.344. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.598 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 23 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 57.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.72 | Draw 3.10 | Borussia Dortmund 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 20% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.21 / Borussia Dortmund 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.598 / def 0.919 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.881 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 37% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 23 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.10
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.30
1.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.09 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 12D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.67 PPG from 57 outings (27W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.58 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.95 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.68 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
3
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 43%, Borussia Dortmund 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC St. Pauli) and 61% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of FC St. Pauli's games and 68% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 89% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 0-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.60 / defence 0.92 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 46%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.58 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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