FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face Borussia Mönchengladbach.

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Match Analysis

FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

FC Augsburg at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 5 wins for FC Augsburg, 3 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2026, ended FC Augsburg 0–4 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.859 / defence 1.038 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.731 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 66 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 66.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.71 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% (last 10 away games).

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