FC Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 55%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for FC Augsburg.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended FC Augsburg 1–5 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 68% and Borussia Dortmund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 68% | Borussia Dortmund 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Borussia Dortmund have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.16 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.127 / defence 0.974 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.811 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 41 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 41.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.82 | Draw 4.29 | Borussia Dortmund 4.63. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG FC Augsburg 2.16 / Borussia Dortmund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.127 / def 0.974 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.811 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 55% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.13) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 41 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.29
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.49
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
12%
8.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
2%
40.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 10D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.85 PPG from 41 outings (22W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across their last 20 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 20 away games (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 63%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
FC Augsburg (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 5-1 FC Augsburg.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 75%, Borussia Dortmund at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Augsburg and 60% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Augsburg's games and 65% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Augsburg's matches and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 90% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.16 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 68%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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