1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1899 Hoffenheim travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.40 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80%). Note also that 1899 Hoffenheim surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 0.950 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.940 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.656. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 41 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 41.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.72 | Draw 3.44 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / def 0.950 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.940 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.656 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.48
1899 Hoffenheim xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 37% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 41 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.44
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.02
1.48
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.48 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 12D 16L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 15W 8D 18L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 20 home games (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 3D 10L from their last 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.93 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 88%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.45 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
3
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 2-4 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 65%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 85% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 85% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 85% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 95% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 0-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, 1899 Hoffenheim 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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