RB Leipzig 3-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host SC Freiburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Leipzig 2.00 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. RB Leipzig's 20% rate and SC Freiburg's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for SC Freiburg, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 56% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 61% | SC Freiburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.27 xG and SC Freiburg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.015 / defence 0.633 | SC Freiburg attack 0.934 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 RB Leipzig games / 41 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 27%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | SC Freiburg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 20% | SC Freiburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG RB Leipzig 1.27 / SC Freiburg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.015 / def 0.633 | SC Freiburg attack 0.934 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SC Freiburg xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig 3 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 40% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): RB Leipzig 4W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
40%
2.47
33%
3.07
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.26
0.99
SC Freiburg xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.99 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Leipzig come into this having played 41 games, going 24W 10D 7L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.39 PPG from 41 outings (16W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RB Leipzig's home form reads 13W 5D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (8W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.39 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or SC Freiburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.20 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 40%, SC Freiburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for RB Leipzig and 65% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 40%; SC Freiburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 40% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of RB Leipzig's matches and 65% of SC Freiburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.27 xG and SC Freiburg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.01 / defence 0.63 against SC Freiburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 27%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 61%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.