VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfL Wolfsburg face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FC Augsburg at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 0.80 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's (from VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 3 for FC Augsburg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 64% and FC Augsburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Wolfsburg 62% | FC Augsburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 2.41 xG and FC Augsburg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.025 / defence 1.235 | FC Augsburg attack 0.755 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.614. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 1.473 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output up. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 42 games and FC Augsburg's last 42.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 55% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 | Draw 4.26 | FC Augsburg 4.74. The model has a clear lean to VfL Wolfsburg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.41 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.91 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 55% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 2.41 / FC Augsburg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.025 / def 1.235 | FC Augsburg attack 0.755 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.614 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 55% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (1.02) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 42 games and FC Augsburg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
55%
1.80
23%
4.26
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.91
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
9%
11.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
2%
52.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.50 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 9D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.17 PPG from 42 outings (13W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.07 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across their last 20 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 20 away games (4W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Augsburg's recent record.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 69%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Augsburg have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won FC Augsburg 3-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 80%, FC Augsburg at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 95% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 100% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 9, as VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.41 xG and FC Augsburg 1.50 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 55% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, FC Augsburg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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