VfB Stuttgart 3-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–1 FC Augsburg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and FC Augsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 67% | FC Augsburg 57%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / defence 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.877 / away 1.319. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 49 games and FC Augsburg's last 49.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.55 | Draw 4.63 | FC Augsburg 7.23. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.28 / FC Augsburg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / def 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.877 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Augsburg xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 65% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.94x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 49 games and FC Augsburg's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
65%
1.55
22%
4.63
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.29
1.01
FC Augsburg xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
1%
70.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.01 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 19W 11D 19L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 23L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.06 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 12W 6D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.35 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 4-0 FC Augsburg on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for VfB Stuttgart, 71% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VfB Stuttgart and 62% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 71% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 62% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 92% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3-0 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 67%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.39 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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