VfB Stuttgart 3-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stuttgart Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 2W, FC Augsburg 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and FC Augsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 67% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / defence 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.877 / away 1.319. Data: 49 VfB Stuttgart games / 49 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 7.14. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 60% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.28 / FC Augsburg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / def 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.877 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Augsburg xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 65% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Record (4 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.94x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
65%
1.55
22%
4.63
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.29
1.01
FC Augsburg xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
1%
70.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.01 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 19W 11D 19L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 23L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.06 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.35 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for VfB Stuttgart, 71% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VfB Stuttgart and 62% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 71% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 62% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3-0 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 14%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 67%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.39 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.