Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Borussia Dortmund.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Borussia-Park plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Borussia Dortmund (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have 6 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–2 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 9 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 57% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.17 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.866 / defence 0.934 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.147 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.497. Borussia Dortmund bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output down. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 65 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 65.

Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 27% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.65 | Draw 3.89 | Borussia Dortmund 2.13. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights