Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bayern München at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München encounter.

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Full Analysis

Signal Iduna Park plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus Bayern München in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Bayern München's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Bayern München away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.30 for Bayern München — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bayern München have the stronger record — 4 wins to Borussia Dortmund's 1, with 3 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München — a Bayern München win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bayern München have won 4 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | Bayern München 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG and Bayern München 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.340 / defence 0.821 | Bayern München attack 1.774 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.368. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.340 — their 1.58 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München bring a tight defence (rating 0.697, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Borussia Dortmund's projected output down. Bayern München have an above-average attack rating of 1.774, which lifts their away xG to 1.99. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 57 games and Bayern München's last 57.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 31% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 3.27 | Draw 4.47 | Bayern München 2.12. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Bayern München 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayern München if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and Bayern München's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayern München 50% (last 10 away games).

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