VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Bayer Leverkusen.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Stuttgart Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 2.60 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 68% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.206 / defence 0.836 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.401 / defence 0.669. League average goals — home 1.916 / away 1.405. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.669, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling VfB Stuttgart's projected output down. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.401, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 47 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 47.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.87 | Draw 3.82 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 40% (last 10 away games).

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