Union Berlin 2-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
1. FC Köln's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Köln are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Union Berlin, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1. FC Köln — 1. FC Köln have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Union Berlin 0–0 1. FC Köln — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Union Berlin an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 48% versus 1. FC Köln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 56% | 1. FC Köln 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.47 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.761 / defence 1.141 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.670 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.873 / away 1.328. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 48 games and 1. FC Köln's last 49.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.20 | Draw 3.28 | 1. FC Köln 4.16. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Union Berlin 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Union Berlin 1.47 / 1. FC Köln 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.761 / def 1.141 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.670 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.873 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.76) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.67x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 48 games and 1. FC Köln's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.28
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.01 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 21W 9D 18L from 48 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 21L across 48 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 13W 7D 4L from their last 24 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.17 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.92 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
4
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 50%, 1. FC Köln 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union Berlin) and 46% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games; 1. FC Köln in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 54% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Union Berlin's recent games and 46% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 71% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.47 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 45% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Köln 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 56%, 1. FC Köln 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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