SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 48%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 66% and SC Paderborn 07 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SC Paderborn 07 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.110 / defence 0.993 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 67 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 67.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.10 | Draw 3.82 | SC Paderborn 07 3.81. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 / SC Paderborn 07 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.110 / def 0.993 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SC Paderborn 07 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 48% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.11x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.02x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 67 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.82
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.28
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.28 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 22D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.70 PPG from 67 outings (32W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across their last 33 home games, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 33 away games (14W 12D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.69 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 69%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 22D 21L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 18D 17L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.91 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won SV Darmstadt 98 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, SC Paderborn 07 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 52% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SC Paderborn 07 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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