🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Hertha BSC travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Hertha BSC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Hertha BSC trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 64% versus Hertha BSC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Hertha BSC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.25 xG and Hertha BSC 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.875 / defence 1.087 | Hertha BSC attack 1.204 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Arminia Bielefeld games / 67 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 45%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 2.22. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 70% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights