Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Preussenstadion plays host to Preußen Münster versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preußen Münster at Preussenstadion this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Preußen Münster against 0.90 for SV Darmstadt 98. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Preußen Münster register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Preußen Münster lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 64% and SV Darmstadt 98 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.797 / defence 1.255 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.049 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.270. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Preußen Münster games / 66 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Preußen Münster 1.50 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.797 / def 1.255 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.049 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Preußen Münster 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 33% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): Preußen Münster 0W | Draws 2 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.80x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.05x) against Preußen Münster's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.17
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.67 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preußen Münster come into this having played 66 games, going 14W 23D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.41 PPG from 66 outings (24W 21D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Preußen Münster's home form reads 7W 14D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.91 points per game from 33 outings (6W 12D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.70 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 65%.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 14W 23D 29L in their last 66 games (0.98 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 21D 21L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.06 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
3
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Preußen Münster, 79% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Preußen Münster) and 73% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Preußen Münster's games and 79% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Preußen Münster's matches and 73% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 33, as Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.