SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Darmstadt 98.

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Analysis & Preview

SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–4 SV Darmstadt 98 — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% and SV Darmstadt 98 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.63 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.928 / defence 1.192 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.055 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.279. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 63 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 63.

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.68 | Draw 3.80 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 80% (last 10 away games).

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