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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees SV Elversberg travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Elversberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SV Elversberg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 2 for SV Elversberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SV Elversberg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 64% versus SV Elversberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SV Elversberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG and SV Elversberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / defence 0.835 | SV Elversberg attack 1.050 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.303. Data: 64 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 64 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | SV Elversberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 0 – 7 SV Elversberg • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 0% / Draw 33% / SV Elversberg 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SV Elversberg (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 as more likely (home 44% / draw 29% / away 27%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L • SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • SV Elversberg away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: SV Elversberg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (SV Elversberg): Poisson projects 1.14 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 55% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours SV Elversberg on PPG but Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 higher (44% vs 27% for SV Elversberg) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 / SV Elversberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / def 0.835 | SV Elversberg attack 1.050 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SV Elversberg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 3 SV Elversberg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
• Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 0 – 7 SV Elversberg • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 0% / Draw 33% / SV Elversberg 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SV Elversberg (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 as more likely (home 44% / draw 29% / away 27%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg in?
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L • SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • SV Elversberg away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: SV Elversberg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (SV Elversberg): Poisson projects 1.14 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.64 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 55% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours SV Elversberg on PPG but Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 higher (44% vs 27% for SV Elversberg) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture