SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Hertha BSC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.40 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hertha BSC — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 64% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | Hertha BSC 52%). Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.081 / defence 1.051 | Hertha BSC attack 1.272 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.354. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 56 games and Hertha BSC's last 56.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.71 | Draw 3.81 | Hertha BSC 2.14. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights