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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, SV Darmstadt 98 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 62% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.299 / defence 0.765 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.782 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.344. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 56 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 61% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 14%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead the H2H ledger, but SV Darmstadt 98 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%.

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