1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fritz Walter Stadion plays host to 1. FC Kaiserslautern versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Kaiserslautern have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record at Fritz Walter Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are significantly better at Fritz Walter Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to 1. FC Kaiserslautern's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 60% and SC Paderborn 07 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67% | SC Paderborn 07 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.42 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.125 / defence 0.963 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.884 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.353. Data: 57 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 57 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | SC Paderborn 07 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 80% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.42 / SC Paderborn 07 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.125 / def 0.963 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.884 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 41% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 5W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (1.12) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.88x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.27
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.15 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 12D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.72 PPG from 57 outings (28W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.72 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.64 points per game from 28 outings (12W 10D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.65 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 65%.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 2.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
6
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 57% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 50% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 57% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 at Fritz Walter Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.42 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 28%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%, SC Paderborn 07 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.58 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.