SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.00 for Arminia Bielefeld. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% versus Arminia Bielefeld 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73% | Arminia Bielefeld 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.044 / defence 1.424 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.801 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.349. Data: 56 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 22 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 37%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.044 / def 1.424 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.801 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Arminia Bielefeld xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 35% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (5 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 3 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.80x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.64
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.03
1.54
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.54 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 4D 13L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.23 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arminia Bielefeld's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.59 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 4D 13L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.90 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 30% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 40% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 30% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.04 / defence 1.42 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 37%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%, Arminia Bielefeld 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.86 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.