Preußen Münster 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preußen Münster face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Preussenstadion to face Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Preußen Münster have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Preußen Münster, 2 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Preußen Münster 0–2 1. FC Magdeburg — a 1. FC Magdeburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 63% and 1. FC Magdeburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 52% | 1. FC Magdeburg 63%). Note also that 1. FC Magdeburg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Preußen Münster recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.56 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.840 / defence 1.151 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.293 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.295. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.93. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 60 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 60.
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.28 | Draw 4.14 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.20. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Preußen Münster's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Preußen Münster 1.56 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.840 / def 1.151 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.293 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.93
1. FC Magdeburg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Preußen Münster 1 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.84) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.29x) against Preußen Münster's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from Preußen Münster's last 60 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
30%
3.28
24%
4.14
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.49
1.93
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
4%
22.57
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.93 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preußen Münster come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 20D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Preußen Münster against 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Preußen Münster's home form reads 7W 13D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Preußen Münster (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 14W 20D 26L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.13 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: 1. FC Magdeburg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Preußen Münster won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-5 Preußen Münster on 2 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Preußen Münster have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Preußen Münster 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 78% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Preußen Münster, 63% for 1. FC Magdeburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Preußen Münster) and 63% (1. FC Magdeburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Preußen Münster's games and 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 77% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Preußen Münster.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Preußen Münster 1-3 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.56 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.93 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.29 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 30% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.03 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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