Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face VfL Bochum.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfL Bochum travel to Olympiastadion to take on Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hertha BSC at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
VfL Bochum — last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 1.30 (VfL Bochum). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 2 for VfL Bochum and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Hertha BSC 2–3 VfL Bochum — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 56% versus VfL Bochum 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 54% | VfL Bochum 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and VfL Bochum 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.887 / defence 0.974 | VfL Bochum attack 0.859 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.346. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 59 games and VfL Bochum's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.53 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Bochum 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.32 / VfL Bochum 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.887 / def 0.974 | VfL Bochum attack 0.859 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
VfL Bochum xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 40% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.89x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 59 games and VfL Bochum's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.33
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.13
VfL Bochum xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.13 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 15D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 0.93 PPG from 59 outings (13W 16D 30L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hertha BSC's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.14 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
Hertha BSC (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 13W 16D 30L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Bochum away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.24 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: VfL Bochum 0-1 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 52%, VfL Bochum 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hertha BSC) and 48% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 31% of games; VfL Bochum in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hertha BSC's games and 59% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 48% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 66% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and VfL Bochum 1.13 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against VfL Bochum attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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