Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Paderborn 07, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
It is worth noting that SC Paderborn 07 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 39% versus SC Paderborn 07 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / defence 1.158 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.129 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. Data: 67 Hansa Rostock games / 67 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 50% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.35 / SC Paderborn 07 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / def 1.158 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.129 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.81
SC Paderborn 07 xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 28% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 3W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.83) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.13x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
28%
3.53
24%
4.22
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.16
1.81
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
5%
21.53
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.81 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 21W 9D 37L from 67 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 23L across 67 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 12W 3D 18L from 33 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 11W 10D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.79 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 37L in their last 67 games (1.07 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 30W 14D 23L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.18 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 46%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Hansa Rostock and 73% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Hansa Rostock's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Hansa Rostock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hansa Rostock 1-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 48%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 48%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.