FC Schalke 04 2-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Schalke 04 face Hansa Rostock.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Schalke 04 welcome Hansa Rostock to Arena AufSchalke in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Schalke 04 have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Schalke 04) versus 0.90 (Hansa Rostock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, Hansa Rostock 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended FC Schalke 04 2–0 Hansa Rostock — a FC Schalke 04 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 53% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 61% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.59 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.970 / defence 0.855 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.530 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.410. Hansa Rostock's attack rating of 0.530 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from FC Schalke 04's last 32 games and Hansa Rostock's last 66.
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 60% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 1.67 | Draw 3.91 | Hansa Rostock 6.96. The model has a clear lean to FC Schalke 04 (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Schalke 04 40% (last 10 home games) | Hansa Rostock 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Arena AufSchalke • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 60% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG FC Schalke 04 1.59 / Hansa Rostock 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.970 / def 0.855 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.530 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hansa Rostock xG
38%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock FAQs
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Arena AufSchalke.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Arena AufSchalke.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 60% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.97) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Schalke 04's last 32 games and Hansa Rostock's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.91
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.23
0.64
Hansa Rostock xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
3%
34.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 0.64 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 18W 17D 31L from 66 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 36L across 66 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.08 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 13W 9D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 9W 6D 18L across their last 33 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.91 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
FC Schalke 04 (Home) vs Hansa Rostock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock Form FAQs
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 18W 17D 31L in their last 66 games (1.08 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 36L in their last 66 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.45 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Schalke 04 have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2024: FC Schalke 04 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 54%, Hansa Rostock 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC Schalke 04) and 46% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 27% of games; Hansa Rostock in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs Hansa Rostock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 30% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of FC Schalke 04's recent games and 46% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Hansa Rostock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 67% of Hansa Rostock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out Hansa Rostock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Hansa Rostock 2-1 at Arena AufSchalke, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.59 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.64 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.53 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 60% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 14%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 61%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.08 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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