Hertha BSC 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 74% and SC Paderborn 07 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 79% | SC Paderborn 07 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.98 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.224 / defence 1.007 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.087 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.387. Data: 34 Hertha BSC games / 34 SC Paderborn 07 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 48% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 30%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | SC Paderborn 07 3.33. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 48% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Hertha BSC 1.98 / SC Paderborn 07 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.224 / def 1.007 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.087 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hertha BSC 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 48% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 2W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.22x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.09x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.50
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.50
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.52 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 9D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. Hertha BSC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (15W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.53 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.59 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 71%.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Pre-Season
SC Paderborn 07
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.76 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-2 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Hertha BSC, 76% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Hertha BSC and 82% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hertha BSC's games and 76% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Hertha BSC's matches and 82% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.98 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 48% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 30%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 79%, SC Paderborn 07 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.41 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.