SV Wehen 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as SV Wehen welcome FC St. Pauli to BRITA-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Wehen stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Wehen at BRITA-Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SV Wehen's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SV Wehen, 0 for FC St. Pauli and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SV Wehen trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 54% and FC St. Pauli 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 43% | FC St. Pauli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.04 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.741 / defence 1.255 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.042 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 SV Wehen games / 67 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 21% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 55%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | FC St. Pauli 1.82. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 70% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 21% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Wehen 1.04 / FC St. Pauli 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.741 / def 1.255 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.042 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Wehen 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 21% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 0W.
What form are SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
21%
4.73
24%
4.21
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.84
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
28.85
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.81 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Wehen come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 8D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 2.00 PPG from 35 outings (20W 10D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of SV Wehen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Wehen's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.82 points per game from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.86 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 66%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.18 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when SV Wehen 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 59%, FC St. Pauli 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SV Wehen) and 59% (FC St. Pauli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SV Wehen's games and 71% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SV Wehen's recent games and 59% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SV Wehen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SV Wehen 1-2 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.04 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 21% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 55%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 43%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.