SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hamburger SV arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 64% and Hamburger SV 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 73% | Hamburger SV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.36 xG and Hamburger SV 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.976 / defence 1.107 | Hamburger SV attack 1.214 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.436. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 SC Paderborn 07 games / 66 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 50%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Hamburger SV 2.00. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.36 / Hamburger SV 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.976 / def 1.107 | Hamburger SV attack 1.214 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Hamburger SV xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
Record (5 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.21x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
27%
3.75
23%
4.38
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.29
1.93
Hamburger SV xG
3.75
27%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
4%
25.78
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.93 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 29W 14D 23L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 35W 13D 18L from 66 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.79 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.76 PPG from 33 outings (18W 4D 11L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 13W 10D 10L from 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.95 scored and 1.39 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 14D 23L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 35W 13D 18L in their last 66 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hamburger SV away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.76 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.48 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 61%, Hamburger SV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SC Paderborn 07 and 61% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 61% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 61% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.36 xG and Hamburger SV 1.93 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 50%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 73%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.53 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.