Hamburger SV 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host FC St. Pauli at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hamburger SV have posted 5W 0D 5L at Volksparkstadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 2 for FC St. Pauli and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus FC St. Pauli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 63% | FC St. Pauli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.100 / defence 0.977 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.143 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.407. Data: 65 Hamburger SV games / 65 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Hamburger SV 1.56 / FC St. Pauli 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.100 / def 0.977 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.143 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Hamburger SV 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 37% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli?
Record (5 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.97
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.13
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.57 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 34W 13D 18L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 34W 19D 12L from 65 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.77 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (21W 3D 8L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 7D 10L from 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.72 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 34W 13D 18L in their last 65 games (1.77 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 34W 19D 12L in their last 65 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.06 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when FC St. Pauli 0-0 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 59%, FC St. Pauli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Hamburger SV and 62% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hamburger SV's games and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Hamburger SV's matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 38%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 63%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.77 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.