Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to Düsseldorf Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 1D 3L at Düsseldorf Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Düsseldorf Arena this season.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, 1. FC Nürnberg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 5–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
It is worth noting that 1. FC Nürnberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | 1. FC Nürnberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.031 / defence 0.747 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.897 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.407. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 65 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Nürnberg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
1. FC Nürnberg lead the H2H ledger, but Fortuna Düsseldorf carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 / 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.031 / def 0.747 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.897 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 55% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.03x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.92
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.65
0.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
27.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.94 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 15D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.17 PPG from 65 outings (20W 16D 29L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 19W 7D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 32 outings (8W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 59% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.03 / defence 0.75 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, 1. FC Nürnberg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.