FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 3, Hansa Rostock 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 58% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 55% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.186 / defence 0.968 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.575 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.360. Data: 64 FC St. Pauli games / 64 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Hansa Rostock 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | Hansa Rostock 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.03 / Hansa Rostock 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.186 / def 0.968 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.575 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Hansa Rostock xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 66% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
Record (5 meetings): FC St. Pauli 3W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.19) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.69
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.79
0.76
Hansa Rostock xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
61.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.76 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 64 games, going 33W 19D 12L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.12 PPG from 64 outings (21W 9D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 18W 12D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (9W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.92 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 games (1.84 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 34L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hansa Rostock away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.06 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.03 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 53%, Hansa Rostock 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC St. Pauli) and 47% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 31% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 47% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 55%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.