FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hansa Rostock travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC St. Pauli stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hansa Rostock have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hansa Rostock's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FC St. Pauli have won 3, Hansa Rostock 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 3–2 Hansa Rostock — a FC St. Pauli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 58% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 55% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.186 / defence 0.968 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.575 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.360. Hansa Rostock's attack rating of 0.575 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 64 games and Hansa Rostock's last 64.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.51 | Draw 4.69 | Hansa Rostock 8.14. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Hansa Rostock's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | Hansa Rostock 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG FC St. Pauli 2.03 / Hansa Rostock 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.186 / def 0.968 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.575 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Hansa Rostock xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 66% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.19) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 64 games and Hansa Rostock's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.69
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.79
0.76
Hansa Rostock xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
61.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.76 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 64 games, going 33W 19D 12L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.12 PPG from 64 outings (21W 9D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 18W 12D 2L across their last 32 home games, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.92 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Hansa Rostock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 games (1.84 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 34L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hansa Rostock away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.06 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.03 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won FC St. Pauli 4-0 Hansa Rostock.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 53%, Hansa Rostock 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC St. Pauli) and 47% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hansa Rostock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 31% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 47% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hansa Rostock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 69% of Hansa Rostock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.57 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 12%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 55%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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