SV Elversberg 4-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Hertha BSC travel to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hertha BSC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SV Elversberg have won 0, Hertha BSC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–5 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 64% and Hertha BSC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 64% | Hertha BSC 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.32 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.727 / defence 1.093 | Hertha BSC attack 1.000 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.411. SV Elversberg's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 SV Elversberg games / 31 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 32% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 42%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 50% | Hertha BSC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 32% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Elversberg 1.32 / Hertha BSC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.727 / def 1.093 | Hertha BSC attack 1.000 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg 4 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 32% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Elversberg's attack at 0.73x the league average against Hertha BSC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.87
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.54 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 7D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Hertha BSC's form line: 12W 9D 10L from 31 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.29 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 3D 7L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 2.03 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 71%.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 9D 10L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Hertha BSC away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.27 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 53%, Hertha BSC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SV Elversberg and 73% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 40% of games; Hertha BSC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Elversberg's games and 73% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SV Elversberg's matches and 73% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Hertha BSC 4-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.32 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Hertha BSC attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 32% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 42%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 64%, Hertha BSC 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.29 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.