Toulouse 2-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dunkerque make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 7 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Toulouse (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadium de Toulouse — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Toulouse. A 1.00 PPG lead over Dunkerque (2.10 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Dunkerque 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Dunkerque 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.39 xG and Dunkerque 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.758 / defence 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 0.689 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 0.994 / away 0.953. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.758 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Toulouse games / 26 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 75% | Draw 16% | Dunkerque 9%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Dunkerque 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 70% | Dunkerque 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 75% | Draw 16% | Dunkerque 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 45% | xG Toulouse 2.39 / Dunkerque 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.758 / def 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 0.689 / def 1.367 | league avg home 0.994 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Dunkerque xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Dunkerque kick off?
Toulouse vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Dunkerque?
Toulouse 2 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Toulouse vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Dunkerque part of?
Toulouse vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 75% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Toulouse and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Dunkerque in?
Toulouse (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.76x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.69x) against Toulouse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.28
9%
11.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.08
0.69
Dunkerque xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.28
16%
Draw
11.30
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
9%
10.91
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
1%
123.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.69 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse's recent record stands at 15W 9D 2L from 26 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 13L across 26 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 8W 3D 1L from 12 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 3W 1D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.81 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 9D 2L in their last 26 games (2.08 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Dunkerque away?
Toulouse's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.25 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Dunkerque have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2022, when Toulouse 2-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Dunkerque?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 58%, Dunkerque 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Toulouse) and 50% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Toulouse's recent matches and 42% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Dunkerque's.
Do Toulouse and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Dunkerque 2-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.39 xG and Dunkerque 0.69 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.76 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 0.69 / defence 1.37, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 75% | Draw 16% | Dunkerque 9%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Dunkerque 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.