Grenoble 0-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Toulouse at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Grenoble — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grenoble, 1 for Toulouse and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 36% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 40% | Toulouse 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.88 xG and Toulouse 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.877 / defence 1.299 | Toulouse attack 1.111 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 0.932. Data: 25 Grenoble games / 25 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 24% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 2.08. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Toulouse 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 24% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Grenoble 0.88 / Toulouse 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.877 / def 1.299 | Toulouse attack 1.111 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.020 / away 0.932 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Toulouse xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Toulouse kick off?
Grenoble vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Toulouse?
Grenoble 0 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Grenoble vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Toulouse part of?
Grenoble vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 24% chance of winning, Toulouse a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Grenoble and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Grenoble and Toulouse in?
Grenoble (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.88x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
24%
4.12
28%
3.55
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.22
1.34
Toulouse xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.79
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.34 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 4D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (14W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 6W 1D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.92 points per game from 12 outings (6W 5D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.24 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 14W 9D 2L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.58 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Toulouse in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Grenoble
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2022, when Grenoble 0-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 42%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Grenoble) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Toulouse in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Grenoble's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Toulouse tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Grenoble 0-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.88 xG and Toulouse 1.34 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Toulouse attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 24% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 40%, Toulouse 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.