Quevilly 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Le Havre meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Le Havre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Quevilly 0W, Le Havre 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 50% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.14 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.888 / defence 1.225 | Le Havre attack 0.919 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Quevilly games / 26 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 50% | Le Havre 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Quevilly 1.14 / Le Havre 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.888 / def 1.225 | Le Havre attack 0.919 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Le Havre xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Le Havre kick off?
Quevilly vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Le Havre?
Quevilly 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Quevilly vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Le Havre part of?
Quevilly vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 37% chance of winning, Le Havre a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Quevilly and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Le Havre in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.89x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.92x) against Quevilly's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.34
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.19
1.05
Le Havre xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.05 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Quevilly's recent record stands at 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 6L across 26 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Quevilly against 1.46 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 4W 6D 2L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.96 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 6L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.25 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Le Havre in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
1
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Le Havre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 58%, Le Havre 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Quevilly) and 42% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 42%; Quevilly have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Quevilly's recent matches and 42% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Quevilly's recent games and 42% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Le Havre tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Quevilly 0-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.14 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Le Havre attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 50%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.12 PPG, Le Havre 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.