Saint Etienne 2-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Laval meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Laval away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Saint Etienne's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Laval and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Saint Etienne 3–3 Laval — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 53% versus Laval 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Laval 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.49 xG and Laval 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.120 / defence 1.018 | Laval attack 0.800 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.197. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 23 games and Laval's last 57.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 26% | Laval 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.03 | Draw 3.83 | Laval 4.05. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 60% (last 10 home games) | Laval 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 26% | Laval 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.49 / Laval 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.120 / def 1.018 | Laval attack 0.800 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Laval xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Laval FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Laval kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Laval.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Laval part of?
Saint Etienne vs Laval is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 49% chance of winning, Laval a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Saint Etienne and Laval will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.12) and Laval's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.80x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 23 games and Laval's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.83
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
Laval xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Laval Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.97 for Laval, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 10D 27L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Laval's form line: 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.19 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 5D 11L).
On the road, Laval have gone 9W 10D 9L from their last 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.07 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Laval
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Laval (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Laval Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Laval in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 20W 10D 27L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Laval have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Laval away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.46 PPG; Laval away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Saint Etienne and Laval, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Laval H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Laval?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 4, Laval have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Laval last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Saint Etienne 2-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Laval?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 57%, Laval 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Saint Etienne) and 32% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 36%; Laval in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Laval Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Laval matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 39% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Laval matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 32% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Laval matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 61% of Laval's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Laval 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Laval 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.49 xG and Laval 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Laval attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 26% | Laval 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Laval 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.23 PPG, Laval 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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