Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Amiens have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Saint Etienne's 1.70 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Amiens's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2025, ended Saint Etienne 1–0 Amiens — a Saint Etienne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Amiens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.87 xG and Amiens 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.180 / defence 0.981 | Amiens attack 0.923 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Amiens's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 33 games and Amiens's last 67.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 26% | Amiens 21%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.89 | Draw 3.88 | Amiens 4.71. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 26% | Amiens 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.87 / Amiens 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.180 / def 0.981 | Amiens attack 0.923 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Amiens xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Amiens kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Saint Etienne 5 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Amiens part of?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 53% chance of winning, Amiens a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Saint Etienne and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.18x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.92x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 33 games and Amiens's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.88
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.01
1.14
Amiens xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
3%
30.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.14 for Amiens, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 12D 30L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.00 PPG from 67 outings (19W 10D 38L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.00 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 16W 5D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 33 away games (6W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 25W 12D 30L in their last 67 games (1.30 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 10D 38L in their last 67 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Amiens away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.61 PPG; Amiens away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 54%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Saint Etienne) and 52% (Amiens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Saint Etienne's matches and 52% of Amiens's.
Do Saint Etienne and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 76% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Amiens 5-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.87 xG and Amiens 1.14 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Amiens attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 26% | Amiens 21%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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