Rodez 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Paul Lignon this season.
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Rodez against 2.10 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rodez 1W, Saint Etienne 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 40% versus Saint Etienne 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 30% | Saint Etienne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.880 / defence 1.077 | Saint Etienne attack 1.317 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.079. Saint Etienne have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Rodez games / 32 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 44%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Saint Etienne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 50% | Saint Etienne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Rodez 1.21 / Saint Etienne 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.880 / def 1.077 | Saint Etienne attack 1.317 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Rodez 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Rodez vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Saint Etienne part of?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 30% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rodez and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.88x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.32x) against Rodez's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
30%
3.34
26%
3.91
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.74
1.53
Saint Etienne xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rodez and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rodez and 1.53 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 23D 27L from 70 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 31L across 70 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Rodez against 1.10 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 14D 12L from 35 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 8W 10D 17L across 35 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.30 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 64%.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 23D 27L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 19W 20D 31L in their last 70 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Saint Etienne away?
Rodez's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.17 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Rodez or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 46%, Saint Etienne 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Rodez) and 54% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Rodez's games and 66% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Rodez's recent games and 54% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 1.53 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Saint Etienne attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 30% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 44%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 30%, Saint Etienne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.19 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.