Quevilly 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Annecy travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Quevilly carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Annecy in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Quevilly, 1 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Annecy trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 41% versus Annecy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 38% | Annecy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 2.24 xG and Annecy 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.106 / defence 1.018 | Annecy attack 0.838 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.079. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Quevilly games / 32 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 67% | Draw 19% | Annecy 14%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Annecy 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 67% | Draw 19% | Annecy 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Quevilly 2.24 / Annecy 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.106 / def 1.018 | Annecy attack 0.838 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Annecy xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Annecy kick off?
Quevilly vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Quevilly 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Quevilly vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Annecy part of?
Quevilly vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 67% chance of winning, Annecy a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Quevilly and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Annecy in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (1.11) and Annecy's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.27
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Quevilly xG
Total xG
3.16
0.92
Annecy xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
66.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.92 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 11W 11D 10L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 14L across 32 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 7D 3L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 2W 6D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Annecy in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Annecy away?
Quevilly's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.56 PPG; Annecy away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Annecy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Annecy 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 69%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Quevilly) and 56% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Quevilly's games and 44% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Quevilly's matches and 56% of Annecy's.
Do Quevilly and Annecy tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Annecy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Annecy finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 2.24 xG and Annecy 0.92 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 1.60, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 67% | Draw 19% | Annecy 14%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 38%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.