Guingamp 3-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Guingamp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Laval travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Laval — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Laval away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Laval in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Laval 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Laval 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.60 xG and Laval 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.031 / defence 1.186 | Laval attack 0.713 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.079. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Guingamp games / 32 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 53% | Draw 25% | Laval 21%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Laval 4.76. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 53% | Draw 25% | Laval 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Guingamp 1.60 / Laval 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.031 / def 1.186 | Laval attack 0.713 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Laval xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Laval kick off?
Guingamp vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Laval.
Where is Guingamp vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Laval part of?
Guingamp vs Laval is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 53% chance of winning, Laval a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Guingamp and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Laval in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.03) and Laval's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.95
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.52
0.91
Laval xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
23.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.91 for Laval, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 9D 12L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Laval's form line: 10W 4D 18L from 32 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.31 PPG, Laval on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Laval have gone 4W 2D 10L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.09 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Laval in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Laval have gone 10W 4D 18L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Laval away?
Guingamp's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.12 PPG; Laval away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Laval specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Laval have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Laval?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Laval 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Guingamp) and 44% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 31%; Guingamp have failed to score in 38% of games; Laval in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Guingamp's recent games and 44% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Laval tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Laval in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Laval 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.60 xG and Laval 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Laval attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 53% | Draw 25% | Laval 21%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Laval 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.31 PPG, Laval 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.