Saint Etienne 3-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.90 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 0, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 65% and Guingamp 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 54% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.034 / defence 1.192 | Guingamp attack 0.954 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Data: 33 Saint Etienne games / 71 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Saint Etienne 1.22 / Guingamp 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.034 / def 1.192 | Guingamp attack 0.954 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Guingamp xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Saint Etienne 3 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp part of?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 35% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Saint Etienne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.03) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.52
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.46
1.24
Guingamp xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.24 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 19W 21D 31L from 71 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 22L across 71 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.10 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 11W 10D 14L from 35 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 12W 13D 10L across 35 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Guingamp in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 19W 21D 31L in their last 71 games (1.10 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 27W 22D 22L in their last 71 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.23 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Guingamp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 63%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Saint Etienne's games and 54% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Guingamp 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Guingamp 3-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.24 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 54%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.10 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.