Rodez 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Le Havre (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Le Havre are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rodez, 0 for Le Havre and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 37% versus Le Havre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 29% | Le Havre 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.75 xG and Le Havre 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.834 / defence 1.330 | Le Havre attack 1.159 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.147. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Rodez games / 49 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 15% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 62%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Le Havre 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 50% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 15% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Rodez 0.75 / Le Havre 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.834 / def 1.330 | Le Havre attack 1.159 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Le Havre xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Le Havre kick off?
Rodez vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Le Havre?
Rodez 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Rodez vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Le Havre part of?
Rodez vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 15% chance of winning, Le Havre a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rodez and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Rodez and Le Havre in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.16x) against Rodez's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
15%
6.46
23%
4.37
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.52
1.77
Le Havre xG
6.46
15%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
3%
37.86
29%
3.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Rodez and 1.77 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 18D 19L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Rodez against 1.47 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (5W 11D 8L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 10W 7D 7L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.16 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.08 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Rodez or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Le Havre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 42%, Le Havre 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rodez and 42% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Le Havre in 46%; Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rodez's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rodez's recent games and 42% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.75 xG and Le Havre 1.77 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.83 / defence 1.33 against Le Havre attack 1.16 / defence 0.74, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 15% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 62%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 29%, Le Havre 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.10 PPG, Le Havre 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.